AGP Executive Report

El Niño Alert: Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says El Niño is now underway in the tropical Pacific and could intensify to “strong to very strong” levels in the second half of 2026, with climate change expected to supercharge impacts—raising risks of drier conditions on the east coast and hotter days that could hit wheat, sugar and beef production. On-Farm Water Tech: A University of Canterbury project is developing an AI-driven soil moisture system that blends ground sensors, satellite signals and modelling to give field-scale moisture insights multiple times a day, aiming to help farmers use water more efficiently. Show Ring Buzz: The 120th Sunshine Coast Agricultural Show drew 26,146 patrons despite rain, with entries up and no cancellations—highlighting the resilience of regional events. Feral Pigs: Kangaroo Island has declared victory in its feral pig eradication push, a major win for land managers and producers. Energy for Agriculture: Floating wind developer Encomara won ABS Product Design Assessment approval for its Squid system, targeting faster offshore installation—potentially supporting future renewable power supply chains.

Beef Market Tightening: Global Agritrends says herd rebuilding in the US, Australia and South America will tighten beef supplies worldwide, keeping prices at or near record highs, with New Zealand poised to “backfill the backfiller” in key markets like the US. Dairy Pricing Clarity: Australian Dairy Farmers warns dairy farmers can’t properly compare processor offers because sign-on bonuses, loyalty payments and incentives blur the “genuine base milk price” under the Dairy Code. Biosecurity & Horticulture: Australia’s first mainland apple exports to China have landed, with “Bravo” apples shipped under an expanded biosecurity protocol covering all states and territories. Wildfire Insurance Tech: Liberty and ICEYE launched building-level parametric wildfire cover for Australia and the US, using satellite radar to classify properties and trigger payouts within days. Cyber Disruption to Sugar: A ransomware attack forced Mackay Sugar to shut down mills and issue “cease harvesting” orders across about 1,300 North Queensland farms, highlighting how quickly harvest logistics can unravel. Climate Impacts on Pollinators: Research finds native bee heat tolerance depends on nesting habits, with plant-stem nesters most vulnerable and underground nesters better able to cope with extreme heat.

China Apple Access: Australia’s apple industry has scored a major export boost after an updated biosecurity agreement with China expanded market access to all states and territories, with the first “Bravo” apples (branded Soluna) shipped from mainland Australia in an 80-tonne consignment expected to unlock a $10m+ market. Food Waste Leadership: End Food Waste Australia has appointed Wendy Hughes as CEO to push national action on food waste, arguing the issue costs the economy about 1.4% of GDP and undermines food security. Wildfire Insurance Tech: Liberty has launched satellite-powered parametric wildfire cover with Iceye, aiming to trigger building-level claims within days using automated damage assessments from space. Dairy Outlook: Rabobank says global dairy markets are moving back toward balance as milk production growth slows, with El Niño risks flagged for supply impacts in Australia, New Zealand and South America. Beef Market Growth: A new forecast points to steady global beef expansion, driven by protein demand and premiumisation. AgTech & Livestock Tech: 701x is pushing GPS-enabled cattle tags and ranch management tools to help detect health issues and improve reproductive tracking. Market Watch: Canola oil demand is forecast to keep rising, supported by food processing, household use and biodiesel demand.

Shark Safety vs Culling Debate: NSW Agriculture Minister Tara Moriarty won’t rule out a shark cull after the Coogee Beach attack, defending the state’s mix of nets, SMART drumlines, drones and tagging while critics argue there’s little proof culls prevent bites. Drone Surveillance Update: CASA has temporarily lifted restrictions so drones can patrol Coogee for the rest of the week, with negotiations ongoing for wider coastline coverage. Reef Funding for Farmers: Queensland’s 2026–27 Budget locks in a record $330.5m for Great Barrier Reef protection, targeting sediment, nutrients and pesticides via the Reef 2050 Catchment Water Quality Strategy and landholder best-practice programs. El Niño and Food Costs: NOAA says El Niño conditions are developing and could turn “very strong,” raising concerns for heat, drought and floods; one report notes fertiliser prices have surged but food-price impacts haven’t hit globally yet. Renewable Fuel Push: SA biodiesel maker 34MJ says Strait of Hormuz disruption is boosting interest in canola-to-biodiesel systems that can be run at regional farms. Showcase for Rural Youth: The Sunshine Coast show drew school-age young judges, with Gympie student Billie English winning her first major ribbon after practice through the school’s agriculture program. Canola-to-Canopy Innovation: Researchers in India’s TERI School won recognition for a climate tower using azolla pools and passive solar design to tackle air pollution, carbon, wastewater and degraded land.

Feral Pigs Push: NSW opposition backs a $300m biosecurity and feral-animal control plan, including more pigs killed, longer aerial shooting, drones/thermal imaging, and a targeted bounty trial to protect primary industries and the environment. Shark Safety Overhaul: After a woman was critically injured in a Coogee Beach attack, NSW says drone curbs will be reviewed so rescuers can monitor, with shark nets planned from September 1 and “nothing off the table” on culling. Lamb on Stubble Payoff: WA trial at Tambellup saw 827 Merino wether lambs run on lupin stubble, adding ~12kg liveweight and delivering about $30,000 return for the community, highlighting stubble-finishing profits. Egg Tech Upgrade: Australia’s poultry sector will trial in-ovo sexing via a Cheggy machine, aiming to cut day-old male chick culling by identifying sex early in incubation. El Niño Food Risk: A “super El Niño” is expected to intensify weather extremes and pressure global food supply chains, with analysts warning it could lift grocery prices. Data Centres vs Power: Australia’s data-centre boom faces mounting scrutiny as critics warn of grid strain and higher emissions, while operators argue it can accelerate the energy transition.

In-ovo chick sexing in Australia: Egg Farmers Australia is set to trial fully automated in-ovo sexing using Specialised Breeders Australia’s Cheggy machine, aiming to cut day-old male chick culling by identifying sex early in incubation. ACT compostable packaging backlash: The ACT’s compostable rules at public events are being criticised because there’s no local composting facility, leaving much of it to end up in landfill. Fuel excise discount panic-buying: The Albanese government is preparing for another round of petrol and diesel rushes as the 32c-a-litre discount nears its end. Lubricant shortage risk: Rising base-oil prices and supply disruptions raise concerns about engine oil and other lubricants—an issue that could hit tractors and other farm machinery. Global beef demand tailwind: RaboBank reports global beef production down 2.5% and points to record Australian export volumes, with trade opportunities for reliable exporters. Kangaroo Island feral pig win: KI declares victory after a feral pig eradication push. Farming and jobs shock: JBS plans to close its Souderton plant in the US, affecting about 1,700 workers. El Niño watch: Multiple reports warn “Super El Niño” could bring extreme heat and crop risks across regions, with knock-on effects for food and farm inputs.

Beef Export Boost: RaboBank says global beef production is down 2.5% and key exporters are falling, creating trade openings for Australia; RaboResearch says record export volumes and strong domestic supply put Aussie producers in a good spot, especially for northern Victoria’s premium grassfed and grainfed beef. Dairy Pressure & Hope: Dairy Australia reports milk output held up after timely autumn rain, but warns input costs and supply-chain pressures could still squeeze margins; it forecasts a 2% drop in 2026-27 production (range 1–3%). El Niño Alarm for Food: The UN and WMO warn El Niño is likely to intensify extreme weather, raising risks for agriculture and food prices; impacts are expected to hit crop yields across regions including Australia and parts of Africa and Asia. Biosecurity Win on Kangaroo Island: Kangaroo Island has declared victory in its feral pig eradication program after two years with no sightings, following the removal of 878 pigs since the mission began. Apple Trade Milestone: South West Bravo apples have shipped to China for the first time, with an 80-tonne inaugural load expected to be worth $10m+ over two years. Food Safety Recall: FSANZ orders a recall of ASO United cooked scampi shrimp after banned nitrofurazone was detected, with consumers told not to eat the product.

Dairy Outlook: Dairy Australia says milk output has steadied after a weak patch, with production down just 0.7% year-on-year by March after timely autumn rain lifted pasture growth and soil moisture; the industry still faces margin pressure from fuel, fertiliser and supply-chain costs, with a 2026-27 production forecast of about a 2% decline (range 1–3%). Livestock Protection: Victorian north-west graziers warn a new 70km dingo exclusion fence will simply push predation onto neighbours after lethal control was lifted in March 2024, with local losses put at around $3m since then. Weather Risk: A warm, wet start to winter is expected across southern Australia, with a rain band set to hit SA, Victoria and Tasmania hardest, while other regions see lighter falls. Climate Signal for Crops: El Niño has officially returned and could intensify, raising global heat, flood and drought risks; one report flags Argentina may still see better crop conditions later in 2026. Grain Markets: Wheat futures closed mixed as USDA trimmed winter wheat production estimates, while export sales data showed strong new-crop demand. Urban Tree Recovery: Perth and Peel councils can apply for up to $100,000 to replace trees lost to shot-hole borer and expand canopy cover, supporting cooler, greener suburbs. Agri-Tech & Trade: CSL and Adbri delivered MV Yampu, a battery-powered self-unloading bulk carrier for limestone logistics in South Australia, aiming to cut diesel use and emissions versus the previous ship.

Water Security for Farmers: Victoria has started construction on the AUD 113.2m Western Port recycled water scheme, set to deliver at least 4,000 million litres a year to 40–60 farms, with first deliveries due from 2028. Biosecurity & Farm Continuity: Mackay Sugar says it’s working to safely restore systems after a cyber attack, with limited manual crushing restarting while growers’ cane supply and logistics are brought back online. Climate Watch for Crops: El Niño has officially formed and is forecast to intensify toward historic strength, with major knock-on risks for heat, drought, floods and bushfires—while some regions may see rainfall boosts. Conservation & Aquaculture Pressure: A new study finds Tasmania’s endangered Maugean skate is stable but still highly vulnerable, as NGOs continue to challenge salmon farming near its habitat. Agritech & Inputs: Government is looking to speed up approvals for new fertilisers, aiming to cut delays in getting products registered and into farmers’ hands. Export Opportunities: Cambodia has signed a protocol to enable dried longan exports to China, aiming to lift farmer incomes and reduce reliance on costly transit routes.

El Niño Watch: Meteorologists say El Niño has formed in the Pacific and has a 63% chance of becoming one of the biggest on record, with Australia and global food and weather risks likely to rise. Farm Rates Fight: Far North Queensland graziers are seeking legal advice over a three-year stoush with Cassowary Coast Regional Council, arguing their rates are “grossly inequitable” and demanding clearer how-to calculations. Biosecurity & Pollination Pressure: Queensland beekeepers say varroa mite is collapsing colonies and that mites are becoming resistant to some approved treatments, with costs running into the hundreds of thousands. On-Farm Innovation: Elm Lab is using Taieri Plains colostrum to scale colostrum-based skincare demand, with product testing and overseas interest driving growth. Energy for Industry: Aggreko and Harmony’s Eva copper mine will be powered by Australia’s largest off-grid renewable hybrid facility, combining solar and a large battery with low-emissions thermal generation. Wine Benchmarks: The National Wine Show of Australia has named its Prime Minister’s Trophy winner, while judges flag alternative varietals like Chenin Blanc and Malbec as vines age. Roadside Produce Theft: A WA mandarin grower has shut an honour-system roadside stall early after thefts hit up to 40% of stock.

El Niño Arrives: NOAA has officially confirmed El Niño is underway in the Pacific, with a 63% chance it will become one of the biggest on record—raising the odds of hotter conditions and knock-on impacts for agriculture and food prices. Farm Profit Pressure: ABARES says Australian farm profits could fall 70% as costs rise and output declines, underlining how quickly weather and input shocks can hit the paddock. Fuel Crunch Eases (But Risks Linger): Australia’s fuel supply has improved slightly with new shipments and fewer retail shortages, yet experts warn diesel and jet fuel pressures could persist into the second half of 2026. Fertiliser Supply Watch: Malaysia’s NAFAS says it has enough fertiliser stock to cover supply needs until August 2026, while monitoring global price and logistics uncertainty. Trade Friction for Exporters: US agriculture exporters warn proposed penalties on Chinese-built ships could add $600–$900 per container and price some exports out of overseas markets. Renewables With Farm Links: Naturgy commissioned two Australian solar projects, including an agrivoltaic setup in NSW integrating sheep grazing.

Biosecurity & Trade: The federal Traceability Grants Program has awarded $4m (Round 4) for projects to digitise supply-chain data and strengthen responses to food safety and biosecurity incidents, including honeybee export traceability, horticulture data standards, and forest-to-house timber compliance. Beef Genetics: UQ researchers have identified missing hornless cattle gene variants in northern tropical breeds, improving DNA testing and helping producers breed naturally polled animals. Cattle Market Watch: Beef trade coverage says processor base prices have steadied after earlier cuts, with farmers advised to sell while supplies tighten. Grains & Weather: Wheat futures lifted on El Niño-driven crop risk, while grain trend reporting shows wheat firmer and oilseed rape holding after a recent dip. Energy for Farms: Gamuda Renewables has acquired interest in Victoria’s Hazelwood North 450MW solar-plus-storage project, with potential expansion toward data centres. Sustainability in Practice: Rocky Ridge Brewing launched a six-beer sustainability series tied to regeneratively grown barley from a Western Australian family farm. Policy & Food Security: A report flags that neglected infrastructure and rising costs are choking Cairns’ ability to grow exports and feed more Australians. Farm Safety Tech: A Queensland student has built a smart clock to help older people stay independent with medication and check-in alerts.

El Niño Watch: Forecasters say a potentially “strongest in history” El Niño is developing, with the WMO flagging an 80% chance of conditions in July–August 2026 and warning of drought, heat and food/water disruption risks across multiple regions. Climate Cost for NSW: A UNSW-led report estimates climate change cut NSW economic output by about 18% in 2024, with most losses tied to broader weather-driven impacts on agriculture, trade and supply chains. Biosecurity Raid: Australia seized more than 100,000 illegal exotic cockroaches in a record bust, targeting a major pest-trafficking operation. Primary Industries Support: Labor says energy-hungry data centres will face “triple-lock” obligations to reduce peak strain on the grid, a move aimed at protecting reliability as AI investment grows. Rural Women in Focus: A Victoria conference called Thriving Women is bringing practical learning and crop/paddock experiences to more regional women in agriculture. Agritech/Robotics: Goodnature promoted new co-CEOs as the pest-control firm pushes toxin-free innovation, with Australia among key export markets. Farm Events: Elders FarmFest 2026 in Toowoomba drew strong crowds despite cost pressures, with drones and ag-tech demos a standout.

Aussie agriculture and fuel security: With the Strait of Hormuz still a flashpoint after renewed US-Iran hostilities, a Reuters report says Australia’s fuel stockpiles are now bigger than feared, after Asian refineries shifted supply away from the Middle East. Policy and farm income: AgriFutures Australia research warns the tax system isn’t keeping up with how farms are diversifying into renewables and biodiversity credits, leaving producers facing uncertainty and extra compliance. Sugar industry pressure: Canegrowers says urban expansion and mill viability are squeezing Far North Queensland growers, with Mulgrave Mill’s planned throughput seen as a knife-edge for profitability. Biosecurity and wastewater: New research from UQ and Exeter finds antibiotic by-products in treated wastewater can still drive antibiotic resistance, while Australia’s record cockroach bug-bust highlights ongoing pest-trafficking risks. Conservation for farming landscapes: WA’s Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo faces extinction unless a major tree-planting corridor restores habitat and food sources. Regional development: A Corowa roundtable flags housing shortages and weak retail foot traffic as key barriers to growth in the Murray River region.

US Tariffs Watch: The US has proposed fresh 12.5% tariffs on Australia as part of new levies covering 60 countries, with analysts saying Australia likely won’t win an exemption—though beef and gold are expected to keep their carve-outs. El Niño Food Risk: Forecasters and the WMO are warning a potentially strong El Niño could intensify drought, flooding and heatwaves, raising the odds of major knock-on effects for global food and water supplies. Beef Cost Pressure: Rabobank says the Middle East conflict could squeeze margins across Australia’s beef supply chain as consumers trade down from premium cuts to mince and sausages. Biosecurity Alert: Australia’s record cockroach bust has seized 100,000 illegal live insects, highlighting ongoing risks to agriculture from wildlife trafficking. Tuna Shift Planning: Pacific nations are rolling out a climate warning system to track tuna moving beyond national waters, aiming to protect fisheries, food security and livelihoods. Agriculture Trade Signals: China’s blueberry boom is reshaping regional markets, with Yunnan expansion boosting exports and undercutting prices versus Australian fruit.

Grain Outlook: ABARES forecasts Australia’s winter crop production down 21% in 2026-27, with lower yields and planted area raising questions for Asia-bound supply. Labour Solutions: A non-profit is matching international workers to farms to help plug labour gaps, including placements linked to Australia and other countries. Biosecurity & Pests: Victoria farmers are on alert after plague locust numbers hit their highest in 15 years, with egg-laying raising fears of spring swarms. Beef Market: Beef trade shows signs of steadying after a run of weekly price falls, with processors holding quotes and tighter slaughter supplies supporting negotiations. Virtual Fencing Debate: Virtual fencing is gaining traction, but vets and animal welfare groups are still split on animal welfare and regulation. Tasmania Forestry: The Albanese and Rockliff governments move toward a bilateral forestry agreement to align Tasmania’s forest management with new national environmental standards from 2027. Sustainable Packaging: Terra Firma launches Averro to scale alternatives to conventional plastic packaging across foodservice, healthcare, logistics and export supply chains. El Niño Watch: Forecasters are increasingly confident a strong El Niño could form, with major knock-on risks for drought and flooding in key agricultural regions.